Multilevel analysis of social, climatic and entomological factors that influenced dengue occurrence in three municipalities in Colombia

Autores organización

• 

  Gustavo Adolfo Ordoñez Sierra

  Autor

  gordonezs@unbosque.edu.co

• 

  Diana Marcela Sarmiento Senior

  Autor

  sarmientodiana@unbosque.edu.co

• Alexandra Porras Ramirez

  Autor

  rporrasalexandra@unbosque.edu.co

Autores

• Jaramillo Gomez JF
• Giraldo P
• Olano VA

Grupos de investigación

• Grupo de Inmunología celular y molecular Universidad El Bosque (InmuBo)

  Investigador

  Maria Consuelo Romero Sanchez

  romeromaria@unbosque.edu.co

• Saneamiento Ecológico, Salud y Medio Ambiente

  

  Investigador

  Diana Marcela Sarmiento Senior

  sarmientodiana@unbosque.edu.co

Resumen

According to the World Health Organization, dengue is a neglected tropical disease. Latin America, specifically Colombia is in alert regarding this arbovirosis as there was a spike in the number of reported dengue cases at the beginning of 2019. Although there has been a worldwide decrease in the number of reported dengue cases, Colombia has shown a growing trend over the past few years. This study performed a Poisson multilevel analysis with mixed effects on STATA® version 16 and R to assess sociodemographic, climatic, and entomological factors that may influence the occurrence of dengue in three municipalities for the period 2010–2015. Information on dengue cases and their sociodemographic variables was collected from the National Public Health Surveillance System (SIVIGILA) records. For climatic variables (temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation), we used the information registered by the weather stations located in the study area, which are managed by the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM) or the Corporación Autónoma Regional (CAR). The entomological variables (house index, container index, and Breteau index) were provided by the Health office of the Cundinamarca department. SIVIGILA reported 1921 dengue cases and 56 severe dengue cases in the three municipalities; of them, three died. One out of four cases occurred in rural areas. The age category most affected was adulthood, and there were no statistical differences in the number of cases between sexes. The Poisson multilevel analysis with the best fit model explained the presentation of cases were temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, childhood, live in urban area and the contributory healthcare system. The temperature had the biggest influence on the presentation of dengue cases in this region between 2010 and 2015. © 2021 The Authors

© 2021 The Authors.

Keywords

• Aedes aegypti; Article; Breteau index; climate; Colombia; container index; demography; dengue; disease severity; entomology; environmental temperature; epidemiological data; gender; house index; human; humidity; incidence; parasitological parameters; precipitation; public health surveillance; social status; urban area; World Health Organization